More than half of the Maldives’ population is projected to live in Malé City within the next 36 years, according to a newly published population projection report by the Maldives Bureau of Statistics (MBS) in October 2025.

The Maldives Population Projection 2022–2062 estimates that 53 per cent of the country’s total resident population will be concentrated in Malé by 2062, reflecting continued internal migration towards the capital and the Greater Malé Region.

The report projects that the total resident population of the Maldives, including Maldivians and expatriates, will increase from 547,651 in 2022 to 678,024 by 2062, with population growth largely driven by the expatriate workforce. Of this total, the number of resident Maldivians is expected to stabilise in the long term, while the expatriate population is projected to continue rising, reaching 263,345 by 2062.

Malé City’s population alone is forecast to grow from 227,613 in 2022 to 361,576 by 2062. In contrast, the population living in administrative islands across the atolls is expected to decline both in absolute numbers and as a share of the national population. Over the same period, the proportion of residents living in administrative islands is projected to fall from 45 per cent to 32 per cent, while non-administrative islands, including resorts and industrial islands, are expected to see a modest increase.

Among Maldivian citizens specifically, the concentration in the capital is projected to intensify further. By 2062, 59 per cent of Maldivians are expected to reside in Malé, compared to 41 per cent in 2022. The Maldivian population in the capital is projected to increase to 246,544 over the next four decades.

The projections also point to significant demographic shifts across the atolls. By 2062, only six atolls are expected to have resident populations exceeding 10,000, while several atolls are projected to see a growing proportion of expatriate residents. In Addu City, expatriates are estimated to make up 36 per cent of the population by that year.

According to the Maldives Bureau of Statistics, the projections are based on data from the 2022 Population and Housing Census and are intended to support long-term national planning, particularly in areas such as housing, infrastructure development, healthcare, education, and decentralisation policies.